Exodus · final synthesis
Civilian evacuation brief
The final step. This brief pulls together everything you set upstream in
01 Locate, 02 Assess, 03 Plan, 04 Routes, and
05 Behavior — your live INFORM reading, CERAI endangerment / feasibility
scores, ERCF risk class with NATO STANAG mapping, destination readiness from
the Routes simulator, and household evacuation dynamics from Behavior — and
produces one verdict with the operational cost comparison, resource estimate,
and historical analogues.
Pulled from
No conflict pinned yet
The Brief is a read-only synthesis. To populate it, start in
01 Locate,
click a circle on the map, and use the 📌 Pin this conflict button.
Then refine the threat dimensions in 02 Assess and the operational plan in 03 Plan;
everything you set there flows into this brief automatically.
All five models' outputs are aggregated here at the end — nothing is set up in this tab.
INFORM —Severity —/5Trend —
Three-index reading
INFORM · ACAPS / JRC
Severity Index
Composite crisis severity (0–10)
—
Severity band—
EII (stay ÷ leave)—
Trend—
Drivers—
CERAI · Anticipation Index
Endangerment / Feasibility
Threat composite & route feasibility (0–100)
—
Endangerment—
Feasibility— · —
Threat axisD1 + D2 + D6
Feasibility axisD3 + D4 + D5 + D7
ERCF · NATO mapped
Risk Class. Framework
7-dimension weighted score (1–5)
—
Risk level— · —
NATO STANAG—
Dominant dim—
Weakest dim—
Combined recommendation
—
—
Cost comparison over the planning horizon
Stay
—
total cost of the remaining population staying in zone
Cost / day—
Expected casualties—
Conflict type—
Evacuate
—
grand total to move + shelter the population
Per person · transport—
Transport total—
Shelter (period)—
Resources required single-wave estimate
Buses
—
Ambulances
—
Drivers
—
Medics
—
Security
—
Coordinators
—
Water (L)
—
Food (kg)
—
Diesel (L)
—
Historical analogues closest matches by risk level & population
What-if simulators stress-test the plan with two interactive models
Routes · India destinations
Readiness & uncertainty
Destination readiness under partial information
Greedy assignment, Monte Carlo over destination capacity / corridor blocking,
per-group urgency, and a tunable uncertainty slider. Read what changes when
you only know some facilities' status.
Latest run
—avg success
—
Behavior · household agents
Information & social influence
Family-cluster evacuation dynamics
Agent-based model of family clusters going through
UNAWARE → SEEKING → MILLING → EVACUATING → DONE, with elders, young children,
info-source clarity, and neighbour social signals all delaying departure.